Some things are not obvious until they become so.  And I believe the October surprise has become obvious now.  Except that it arrived a little earlier, in the middle of August.  

I am talking, of course, about the Georgia-Russia war.   In my opinion there is now a clear picture emerging.   Here it is:

1.  Step one.  Condi Rice and the neocons reassure  the idiotic and pro-Bush president of Georgia that he has the support of the US and the west and his country may be admitted to NATO.

I think it is now clear that Lieberman (Lieber-fraud) will be the VP nominee of McCain.  Why?  There are some signs that clearly point to that:

1.  When McCain said yesterday that it no longer matters whether his VP nominee would be pro-choice (asked about Ridge), he was not referring to Ridge in my opinion.   He was referring to someone else.   Ridge will not add anything to a McCain ticket.   He would not be able to deliver Pennsylvania.   Pennsylvania will obviously go democratic and McCain knows that.

I am still surprised about how upset so many people got on this site with the Edwards affair.  I supported Edwards initially, but then I switched to Obama.  My only concern with Edwards was his original Iraq war authorization vote.  But I still believe he has a great message and he would be a great attorney general.  And I could care less about his affair.  

Here are some reasons for which I disagree strongly with all the attacks on Edwards by some great bloggers here:

I was not going to write a diary, but I had enough of this Edwards hit pieces.   All of the sudden, there are several diaries discussing how "bad" Edwards is and there is even a lead story on this site about this issue.

Ok, here it is what I think:  No big deal.  Edwards had an affair.  So what?  
What does this have to do with his ability to be president or vice-president or to serve as an attorney general in the Obama administration?

The title says it all.   The political map of the country is changing.  In fact, it is changing rapidly and decisively.  This new poll from Rasmussen is a confirmation of a clear-cut trend that we have been witnessing the last couple of months.

There has been extensive media attention to the death of Tony Snow, who died on Friday.  Even in this site there were several recommended diaries on the issue.  I feel sorry for the family of Tony Snow and their loss.  I am sure that he was a nice person in his private life.  But I am not impressed by his career as a Fox News journalist or his work as a spokesman for the Bush administration.  

But on Friday, someone else far more important than Tony Snow also died.  But his death went essentially unnoticed.  That person was someone who really made a major difference and whose actions saved the lifes of millions of human beings over the years.  

Yes, I did.   I had promised myself that I will be only donating to MoveOn and to local races in support of progressive candidates.   Why?  Because I only trust MoveOn to spend my money appropriately.  Their positions are fully representative of my views.  

Of course, all along I was going to vote for Obama.   But I I had decided that I will only contribute to MoveOn.  Afterall, Obama's vote on FISA was a reassurance for me that my decision was correct.  

Markos.
I agree with you 99% of the time, including with some of your most controversial positions and posts (i.e. McCain's yellow teeth, lol).  In fact, I have decided and only donate to Move On (and some select congressional candidates), because I trust them 100% and I dont have to worry how they will spend my money.

Originally, I kind of agreed with your decision  not to send the $2300 check to Obama.   After all, what Clark said was absolutely accurate.  And I only trust MoveOn myself.  

There are some real good reasons, summarized in that video below:

Why I am voting republican

I think that video is really worth distributing to you republican and independent friends.  You never know some of them may wake up from their lethargy and realize what they have been doing.   I am wondering how many of them ever realized that they vote against their own interests.  

Hillary's "assassination" comments prove something that has been becoming painfully obvious the last few months.  She is not a good candidate.   And she is clearly not qualified to be in the VP spot of the ticket.  She does not deserve it.

I am an Obama supporter, but up to today, I used to defend her right to stay in the race.  I no longer believe so.   Her comment today was totally indefensible.  And, like many others, I am not convinced it was mistake.  

After actively seeking Hagee's support and being very proud of his support, McCain changed his mind.  Why?  Because he started sensing that it was more of a loss than a advantage to him to continue to be proud of Hagee's support.  His poll numbers have started going down, and that might have contributed.  So, in a classic flip-flop style, he denounced Hagee today.

But pastor Hagee would be just fine.  He has another great defender and admirer.  Whom?  Joe Lieberman, of course.

The primaries are over.  The nominee will be obviously Barack Obana.   I believe that he will win the general election relatively easily.   McCain is a very weak candidate and, I believe, unelectable.   I dont think that Obama should pick Hillary as his VP and I dont think he will.   The main reason that she would not be a good choice is that she can not really help with independent voters, and she may even hurt the ticket.   Obama has a lot of great choices for the VP slot.   I think that either Bill Richardson or Jim Webb would be great and there are many others.  My personal preference is Bill Richardson.

The question is how will Barack unite the party?  How about Hillary's strong supporters who are now deeply disappointed?

The swiftboating of Obama is having a major effect on the race.   The last Rasmussen poll shows that there has been a 10 point (!!) shift in support from Obama to Hillary nationally and that for the first time Hillary is leading 46-44 in the Rasmussen poll and also in other polls.

I believe that Obama should have condemned Wright at an earlier time point.  In any case, I am glad he did.   But that is not enough.   I think there is real possibility that he will lose Indiana.   Even North Carolina may be at stake now.

Ok, I am an Obama supporter and I believe that he is the best that happened to our politics the last 20 years.   But I am concerned.  I am trying to see reality as it is.   And I can not help it but ask:

Why is Barack allowing them to swiftboat him?  Why does n't he fight back harshly?

He could have won yesterday but he lost by 10 points.  And Hillary now has the momentum.  Why? What is going on?  I think the answer is simple.   Hillary has teamed up with Fox News and the republicans to swiftboat Barack.   And they are achieving their goal.

Using the statements of the pastor  of his church, the right (especially Fox News) has started a systematic campaign to smear Obama, link him to the statements of Jeremiah Wright, and create an atmosphere that will damage him significantly and irreperably, and, eventually, destroy his candidacy (at least that is what they hope).

Ok he made a mistake and he apologized for that.  End of story.  Spitzer is a great governor and he deserves our support.   He has been an outstanding public official over the years and, prior to being governor, an outstanding prosecutor that led the investigation that ended up the Gambino's family organized crime.   He has been consistently supportive of progressive causes and has done an outstanding job in New York.

It is getting real bad.  A republican congressman from Iowa made despicable remarks against senator Barack Obama.

Here is what Rep. Steve King said discussing the possibility of Obama winning the presidency:

"The radical Islamists, the al-Qaida ... would be dancing in the streets in greater numbers than they did on Sept. 11 because they would declare victory in this war on terror,"

And this ingenius congressman continued:

I am astonished that Samantha Power  resigned from the Obama campaign and that Obama let her resign.    She is an extremely intelligent person and was a major asset to his campaign.   She is a Harvard Professor who had received the 2003 Pulitzer Prize.